Establishing statistical boundaries for breeding difficulty categories as defined in The Bestiary
Posted: February 29th, 2024, 7:07:43 am
So I'm a lunatic and wrote a 3.6k word research paper complete with charts and such for this contest. Dunno if links to a google doc count but I am paper'd out so it is unlikely I'll convert it into a forum post before midnight.
Here y'all go:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14Vx ... sp=sharing
EDIT: I legitimately forgot that abstracts were a thing. So here is an abstract summarizing the paper:
The Keep has long kept records of all the magical creatures documented in existence by the magi who reside there, but in the last nine years the venerated researchers at the Keep’s library have started releasing a fully compiled bestiary for general reference, to the joy of researchers everywhere. It was with slightly less enthusiasm, though, that researchers found the long-awaited update with breeding chances for each creature only contained vague categories rather than specific numbers. In this study, we conducted 1872 breedings from 23 different types of creature pairings in order to quantify roughly what percentage success rate quantifies each category. Following analysis of our data, we hazard the following guesses at quantified ranges for the breeding success categories: 85-99% for “Very Easy”; 75-84% for “Easy"; 40-74% for “Normal”; 25-39% for “Hard”; and 1%-25% for “Very Hard.” In addition, as a consequence of conducting so many breedings, we are able to show percent breakdowns of color variant phenotypes for some species that produce multiple variants from the same set of parents. It is our hope that these rough estimates provide future researchers with a jumping off point to compare their own breeding numbers against.
Here y'all go:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14Vx ... sp=sharing
EDIT: I legitimately forgot that abstracts were a thing. So here is an abstract summarizing the paper:
The Keep has long kept records of all the magical creatures documented in existence by the magi who reside there, but in the last nine years the venerated researchers at the Keep’s library have started releasing a fully compiled bestiary for general reference, to the joy of researchers everywhere. It was with slightly less enthusiasm, though, that researchers found the long-awaited update with breeding chances for each creature only contained vague categories rather than specific numbers. In this study, we conducted 1872 breedings from 23 different types of creature pairings in order to quantify roughly what percentage success rate quantifies each category. Following analysis of our data, we hazard the following guesses at quantified ranges for the breeding success categories: 85-99% for “Very Easy”; 75-84% for “Easy"; 40-74% for “Normal”; 25-39% for “Hard”; and 1%-25% for “Very Hard.” In addition, as a consequence of conducting so many breedings, we are able to show percent breakdowns of color variant phenotypes for some species that produce multiple variants from the same set of parents. It is our hope that these rough estimates provide future researchers with a jumping off point to compare their own breeding numbers against.